First weekday under the hard wall and first day of the published forecast. Verdict in one line: above expectations on volume, on target on conversion. Visitors nearly doubled the base case and cleared the top of the forecast range, checkout starts beat the range too, and the day produced exactly the ~1 trial the model expected. The trial is still alive, which is more than day 0's trial managed.
Bar = Monday actual. Shaded band = published forecast range. Dark tick = forecast base case. Every volume metric landed at or above the top of its range.
The click-through rate from wall to Stripe replicated the weekend almost exactly (5.7% vs 5.6%), which suggests that rate is a stable property of the audience. What changed on a weekday: wall coverage is 64% of visitors, not the 90% seen on the weekend, because weekday traffic includes more home, category and hub browsing.
| Metric | Forecast (base, range) | Actual | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visitors | 750 (500–1,200) | 1,459 | Above range | 3rd best day ever, and broad: 1,203 distinct pages, top article only 74 views. Real demand, not one viral hit. |
| Pageviews | 1,050 (710–1,700) | 1,961 | Above range | pv per visitor 1.34, close to the 1.42 modeled |
| Sessions | 765 | 1,493 | Above | follows visitors |
| Bounce rate | ~84% | 85.7% | In line | wall still not moving bounce |
| Hit the wall (unique) | 650 (435–1,045) | 933 | High end | coverage 64% of visitors vs 87% modeled: weekend bias corrected below |
| Checkout starters | 34 (20–49) | 53 | Above range | Stripe agrees: 52 sessions created (51 expired + 1 completed) |
| Completed (trials) | 0.9 (0–2) | 1 | On target | 1.9% of starters, low end of the 1–6% band. The card form remains the cliff: 52 of 53 died there. |
| Paid conversions | 0 | 0 | On target | structural: no cohort could bill yet |
| Digest signups | watch item (kill line < 2) | 3 | Watch | above the kill line, still half the pre-wall weekday pace |